Data through May 2011, released yesterday by S&P Indices for its S&P/Case- Shiller1 Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, showed a second consecutive month of increase in prices for the 10- and 20-City Composites. The 10- and 20-City Composites were up 1.1% and 1.0%, respectively, in May over April. Sixteen of the 20 MSAs and both Composites posted positive monthly increases; Detroit, Las Vegas and Tampa were down over the month and Phoenix was unchanged.
On an annual basis, Washington DC was the only MSA with a positive rate of change, up 1.3%. The
remaining 19 MSAs and the 10- and 20- City Composites were down in May 2011 versus the same month
last year. Minneapolis fared the worst posting a double-digit decline of 11.7%.
The chart above depicts the annual returns of the 10-City and the 20-City Composite Home Price Indices.
In May 2011, the 10- and 20-City Composites recorded annual returns of -3.6% and -4.5%, respectively.
Both Composites and 11 MSAs – Atlanta, Dallas, Detroit, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Minneapolis, New
York, Phoenix, San Diego, Seattle and Tampa – saw their annual rates worsen in May compared to April.
“We see some seasonal improvements with May’s data,” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index
Committee at S&P Indices. “This is a seasonal period of stronger demand for houses, so monthly price
increases are to be expected and were seen in 16 of the 20 cities. The exceptions where prices fell were
Detroit, Las Vegas and Tampa. However, 19 of 20 cities saw prices drop over the last 12 months. The
concern is that much of the monthly gains are only seasonal.
“Other recent housing statistics show that single-family housing starts were up moderately in June, and are at about the same pace as a year ago. Existing-home sales were flat in June, reportedly because of contract cancellations and tight credit. The S&P/Experian Consumer Credit Default indices showed a continuing decline in mortgage default rates since last winter. Other reports confirm that banks have tightened lending standards in the past year, making it harder to qualify for a mortgage despite very low interest rates.
Combined, these data all support a continuation of the ‘bounce-along-the-bottom’ scenario we have
witnessed in the housing market over the past two years. “While the monthly data were encouraging, most MSAs and both Composites fared poorly in annual terms. We have now seen two consecutive months of generally improving prices; however, we might have a long way to go before we see a real recovery. Sustained increases in home prices over several months and better annual results need to be
seen before we can confirm real estate market recovery.”
The table below summarizes the Los Angeles results for May 2011. The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices are revised for the 24 prior months, based on the receipt of additional source data.
May 2011 May/April April/March
Metropolitan Area Level Change (%) Change (%) 1-Year Change (%)
Los Angeles 169.07 0.5% 0.3% -3.2%
Since its launch in early 2006, the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices have published, and the markets
have followed and reported on, the non-seasonally adjusted data set used in the headline indices. For
analytical purposes, Standard & Poor’s does publish a seasonally adjusted data set covered in the
headline indices, as well as for the 17 of 20 markets with tiered price indices and the five condo markets
that are tracked.
These indices are generated and published under agreements between Standard & Poor’s and Fiserv, Inc.
The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices are produced by Fiserv, Inc. In addition to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, Fiserv also offers home price index sets covering thousands of zip codes, counties, metro areas, and state markets. The indices, published by Standard & Poor’s, represent just a
small subset of the broader data available through Fiserv.
Source: Case Schiller, New July 26, 2011